We hit a new all time high!
Over the last few years, I have been through some incredibly dark periods. Depression. Performance anxiety. Chronic stress.
I’ve found some of the UFC’s recent matchmaking frustrating, both as a fan and as someone who live bets the fights for a living.
In my view, too many matchups have offered too little real competition. A spectacular finish can be great to watch, but I want to see fighters tested by opponents who can challenge them.
Far too many fights over the last few months have been squash matches, which means either they've been very one sided or end very quickly. These kinds of fights are tough to Livebet because they either don't last long enough for us to find a strong position, or a big favorite establishes dominance early into the matchup with no momentum swings for us to bet on.
That has made our recent results particularly satisfying. We’ve made a profit on 13 of our last 17 UFC events, banking a total of +23.83 units.
With how tough the UFC events have been for Live Betting over the last 3 months, I think we've done incredibly well.
UFC Criticism
The UFC has faced a lot of criticism recently for poor matchmaking from both fans and figures in the MMA community such as Ariel Helwani
The problem is that the UFC seem out of touch with what people actually want to watch. Instead of putting on great fights that are competitive and allowing exciting finishes to just naturally come as part of that. The UFC have instead resorted to the Power Slap model of setting up fights where highlight reel knockouts are virtually guaranteed due to putting on huge mismatches where one fighter has virtually no chance of surviving against their superior opponent.
57% of fights in 2026 have ended inside the distance. In the last 3 months alone 4 UFC cards have entered the top 8 rankings for most ever finishes on an event in the UFC's modern era. Think about how crazy that is. 4 events in the last 3 months now form part of the top 8 UFC cards for most finishes in the last 25 years.
This clearly shows a fundamental shift in UFC matchmaking and in my opinion, it's not for the better.
Everytime there's an event with a lot of finishes, the UFC post about it like it's a badge of honour, without considering that what set the UFC apart from Boxing was competitive fights. The UFC had far more competitive fights than Boxing could ever dream of, but slowly that seems to be changing.
Why competitive fights are better for Live Betting
When fights end in round 1 we simply don't get enough time to see how the fight is likely to play out.
As a Professional Gambler, patience is one of my best weapons and so it's important to gain a strong read on how both fighters matchup in all aspects of MMA. Watching past fights is great for giving us clues, but we can gain absolute confirmation when watching the Fight Live. If fights end quickly before we get a chance to see barely anything, we simply cannot bet with the conviction and confidence we need.
One sided fights are just as bad for Live Betting.
When one fighter establishes dominance early in the first round and then stays in complete control for the entire matchup, their odds will often significantly decline in the first round to the point where they become unbettable.
The best fights for live betting are matchups where we get momentum swings. This enables us to use our knowledge and experience to pre-emptively place bets based on momentum swings at great value odds before the momentum swing becomes obvious to the wider betting market.
With so many big favorites getting favourable matchmaking in the last 3 months, we've seen more one sided fights than ever before, which has led to a tough environment for Live Betting on the UFC.
We've done amazing in a tough betting environment
We've made a profit on 13 of the last 17 UFC events. That’s approximately 76% of events, with a combined profit of +23.83 units.
The four losing events finished at −1.2, −1.0, −2.1 and −0.1 units. Which means that our winning nights far outsized our losing ones.
I’m pleased with both the number of profitable events and the fact that we've been able to keep our losing nights relatively small.
When you’re following the results every week, it’s easy to move straight from one card to the next without stopping to appreciate the bigger picture and how well we're doing in a tough environment for betting.
We know that the UFC is constantly evolving and changing and it won't be long before we're likely to get a run of events that feature tons of competitive fights. That might start this weekend because UFC 333 is packed full of great matchups that are likely to feature tons of momentum swings.
What the last 3 months shows us is that no matter how tough of an environment we have for betting, we're skilled enough and experienced enough to always produce amazing profits.
15 years of consistent profit
I've been Live Betting on the UFC for 15 years and during that time the UFC Live Betting landscape has changed more times than I can remember.
Over the last 15 years we've had good environments for Live Betting and bad environments for Live Betting, but the outcome is always the same. We always make money no matter what the Universe throws at us.
We may have some small dips or break even periods while we adjust to our new environment, but we always do evolve and we always bounce back better than ever.
Smooth seas do not make skilled sailors and all the challenges we've faced over the years have enabled us to reach a level of mastery betting on the UFC that most people will never achieve in a lifetime. We've put thousands of hours into learning our craft and after 15 years, it's still paying off. Bigtime.
We're Working towards a record year
Across UFC Live Betting and Football Live Betting combined, 2026 is shaping up to be one of our best years ever.
We’re close to banking our most profitable year of all time, with more than +100 units of combined profit across everything that we do.
That would be particularly satisfying in a year when the conditions for UFC live betting, historically our strongest area, have often been difficult.
There is still work to do., but if we continue to perform at our current level of profitability through until the end of the year, we should break that +100 unit profit target for 2026.
Thank you to everyone who continues to be part of what we do, especially those who have been with me through both the good times and the bad. I’m proud of what we’ve built together, and I’m looking forward to the rest of the year.
